By Toshihiko Hara
This is often the ebook to target a brand new phenomenon rising within the twenty-first century: the swiftly getting older and lowering inhabitants of a well-developed nation, particularly, Japan. The that means of this phenomenon has been effectively clarified because the attainable historic end result of the demographic transition from excessive delivery and loss of life premiums to low ones. Japan has entered the post-demographic transitional section and should be the fastest-shrinking society on this planet, best different Asian international locations which are experiencing an analogous drastic adjustments. the writer used the ancient statistics, compiled by way of the Statistic Bureau, Ministry of inner Affairs and Communications in 2006 and inhabitants projections for published in 2012 by way of the nationwide Institute of inhabitants and Social protection study, to teach the previous and destiny improvement of the dependency ratio from 1891 to 2060. Then, using the inhabitants lifestyles desk and internet copy price, the results of accelerating existence expectancy and declining fertility at the dependency ratio have been saw individually. ultimately, the ancient relationships between women’s survival premiums at reproductive age, the theoretical fertility expense to take care of the substitute point and the recorded overall fertility price (TFR) have been analyzed. historic remark confirmed TFR adapting to the theoretical point of fertility with a definite time lag and reminiscent of women’s survival premiums at reproductive age. Women’s expanding lifespan and survival charges can have inspired selection making to lessen the chance of childbearing. whether the theoretical fertility expense meets the substitute point, women’s perspectives of minimizing the chance may well stay unchanged simply because for girls the cost–benefit imbalance in childbearing continues to be too excessive in Japan. in response to the findings, the writer discusses the sustainability of jap society with regards to nationwide funds, social safety reform, relatives rules, immigration guidelines and group polices.
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Additional resources for A Shrinking Society: Post-Demographic Transition in Japan (SpringerBriefs in Population Studies)
The basic scheme of the present elder care system was created at the early stage of the industrialization. At that period, the working conditions were harder and more unstable than present; the average life span of the earners and the retired people were basically shorter than now. Therefore, it was almost needless or did not expected the need to prepare for the risk for long life by own saving.
00, the optimal care cost remained low. The curve skewed left, and care cost increased proportionally to NRR. 2. e. This indicates that a higher fertility level is needed to keep the optimal care cost stable to counteract the inevitable effects of population aging. 25) in 2010. In other words, the amplifying effect of belowreplacement fertility rate on optimal care cost has become stronger than ever. 00), longevity has affected child and elder care costs in different ways (Fig. 3; Statistics Bureau 2006).
3 Redistribution Policies To enforce the effective demand, redistribution policies should be strengthen. The winner of the Nobel Prize in economics, Josef E. Stieglitz, wrote in his book, The Price of Inequality (2013, p. 89); the irony is that just unequal outcomes, tax policy asked less of the top. The top marginal tax rate decreased from 70 % under Jimmy Carter to 28 % under Ronald Regan. 6 % under Bill Clinton and dropped to 35 % under George W. Bush. The upper limit of income tax in Japan was also reduced from 70 (1 4 1 6) to 50 (1 1 ), 37 (1 2006), and then increased slightly to 40 (2007 ).